All over bar the shouting? After limiting time trial losses, Enric Mas' pathway to Vuelta a España victory is now clear – GC analysis

23-0. After beating Enric Mas by 33 seconds in the Jerez de la Frontera time trial in the Vuelta a España, Primož Roglič remains undefeated against the Spaniard against the clock, and has now surpassed the Movistar man in a TT on no fewer than 23 consecutive occasions.

Unfortunately for Roglič, though, as impressive as this total sounds (and is), he knows perfectly well that this latest boost to his track record against Mas is essentially irrelevant, a soon-to-be-forgotten footnote in the bigger Vuelta history.

That’s because win or lose in Jerez, the Vuelta’s stage 18 individual time trial was never about a 16th stage victory for Roglič, or even his position in the stage ranking: rather it was all about gaining as much time as possible on Mas.

Roglič sought to either rattle the Spaniard’s morale so severely he might fall apart in the two stages to come, or at best, move into the red jersey and force the Movistar man to fight to get back on terms.

None of this happened. Instead of a predicted 90 seconds, Roglič could only manage a 33-second advantage on Mas. With only three stages left, the Vuelta’s GC battle is all but over in favour of Mas.

If history was anything to go by, the stage 18 time trial had everything Roglič needed for one of his famous last-minute rises to victory to begin. After all, in the 2023 Giro d’Italia, Rogličs’s triumph over Geraint Thomas came thanks to a stunning third-week uphill TT victory against the Briton, overcoming even a mechanical issue mid-climb to clinch his only Grand Tour victory to date outside the Vuelta a España.

And in Spain, he began his pathway to his first Vuelta triumph in 2019 with a knockout victory in the race’s sole time trial in Pau against another Movistar race leader, Nairo Quintana.

But credit where credit is due, Roglič's time trial was anything but poor on Thursday. Mas delivered the time trial of his life to keep well within touch of the Slovenian and simultaneously slam the door shut on all those stories about his potential to crumble under pressure.

It seemingly didn't matter that Mas has virtually no experience of leading a stage race - he's only done it twice since turning pro - let alone one of the calibre of the Vuelta. But rather than things falling apart, like they did when he punctured while leading the 2021 Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana in the final kilometre of the final TT - coincidentally also won by Stefan Küng - in Jerez de la Frontera, there were no such mishaps or faltering at the last fence.

In addition to keeping Roglič on a short leash, Mas also put nearly a minute into Felix Gall (Decathlon CMA CGM), possibly the more dangerous climber of the two. Put it all together, and the road to overall victory in the Vuelta a España could hardly be clearer.

In every summit finish stage since Tadej Pogačar was forced to abandon, and even one day in the mountains before that on the Puerto de El Bartolo stage, Mas has proved superior to all his remaining rivals. It therefore seems highly unlikely that even if he only has a 1:37 advantage on Roglič, the tables can turn so dramatically in the last two crunch stages before the finish in Granada on Sunday.

"You can never have enough time on rivals as dangerous as Roglič, Gall, or Carapaz," Mas said after his time trial. In a Grand Tour like the Vuelta, third-week ambushes and last-minute changes of fortune are always possible, as race leader Tom Dumoulin found out in 2015 thanks to Fabio Aru or as Joaquim Rodríguez discovered in 2012 at the hands of Alberto Contador.

However, Aru's success in 2015 in the sierras of Madrid and Contador's triumph in 2012 in Fuente De were as dependent on strong teamwork, at least to get the ball rolling, as they were on individual audacity once the groundwork had been laid.

If Mas' time-trialling ability and newfound aggression in the high mountains have been a remarkable discovery of the 2026 Vuelta, Movistar's domination and coordinated teamwork defending his top spot overall is another. At the very least, it harkens back to the years when Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde were fighting for the Vuelta.

For Spain, their first Grand Tour win since Alberto Contador won the Giro d'Italia and for their home WorldTour team, too, is now very much on the table.

It goes without saying this isn't the same scenario as when Tadej Pogačar, the arch-favourite, was sweeping all before him before his untimely exit on stage 8 of the race. But for the first time in this year's Vuelta since then, we're in a Pogačar-like situation of one overwhelmingly likely outcome in the GC battle, and virtually no reasons to argue the opposite.

For unbeatable coverage across road, gravel and tech, subscribe to Cycling News. You'll get comprehensive race coverage of La Vuelta a España, subscriber-exclusive analysis from our expert columnists, in-depth features and industry-leading tech insight. Plus, the Cycling News app lets you follow the action wherever you go! Join today.