When you consider that Tadej Pogačar hasn’t lost a one-week stage race since Itzulia Basque Country in 2021, you can understand the realism with which defending champion Lennert Van Eetvelt and two-time podium finisher Pello Bilbao framed their answers at the UAE Tour press conference.
Even at that race specifically, it was only the elite pairing of Primož Roglič and Jonas Vingegaard that did for Pogačar’s chances, with almost every seven-day race he’s done since resulting in imperious victory.
With a third UAE Tour title in his sights, do Van Eetvelt and Bilbao see it as only a race for second behind the World Champion? Of course, they’ll start with the optimism to win but both admitted the giant of a task in front of them and the probable need to surprise in the crosswinds if they are to snatch victory from the heavy favourite.
“You never want to start a race thinking you are racing for second place, but when Tadej starts, it’s always really hard to compete,” said Van Eetvelt, speaking at the Colnago Concept Store on Al Hudayriat Island.
“But you don’t start the race thinking you are going to be second or that second is the maximum possible. We’ll just start to try our best and we will see.”
Bilbao had similar thoughts about Pogačar’s presence in the UAE, with the almost omnipotent Slovenian forcing the Spanish rider to settle into a race for second against Van Eetvelt and the other GC favourites.
“I know this year is going to be really complicated to go for the victory, but we want to do something different to make a good challenge here,” said Bilbao.
“I would say, comparing with the numbers, it’s almost impossible to beat him on the climbs. So the only possibility is to find a surprise during a difficult moment in the race. But even like that, I think it’s going to be super hard.”
Bilbao was third behind Pogačar and Adam Yates during the 2022 edition of the UAE Tour, losing the majority of his eventual 48-second deficit during the 9km time trial. However, he and the other two GC favourites ruled out the race against the clock, which is now on a different 12km course, being much of a decider for the overall win.
“Of course, [the time trial is] always important and a few seconds can count towards the end,” said Van Eetvelt. “But I think with him [Pogačar] here, there is a bigger chance that echelons will make a bigger difference in GC than the time trial and on the climbs, we will all fall into place.”
“It’s a short time trial again. The difference between the best is not going to be huge, though, maybe in the fight for the podium it can be a decider,” said Bilbao, who was eighth on the same ITT course at last year’s race. “But I don’t think it’s going to be too important for the GC.”
The fight for the overall title could start as early as stage 1, during the likely sprint stage from Madinat Zayed Shams Solar Park to Liwa Palace. Exposed roads in the desert offer the potential for wind to shake things up, however, the current forecasts don’t look as fruitful for echelons as they did on stage 2 of the UAE Tour Women.
Stage 2 and 3, however, will take in the time trial and the first summit finish to Jebel Jais, so that should be the early indicator of whether either Bilbao, Van Eetvelt or someone else can mount a challenge for the red jersey against Pogačar.
