Jonas Vingegaard heads up list of 2025 Paris-Nice contenders

Another major test for the key Tour de France contenders in 2025 comes at the 83rd edition of Paris-Nice, which will be the next rung on the ladder for Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) toward trying to regain his Tour dominance.

Vingegaard leads a strong list of Paris-Nice contenders, returning for the first time since he made his debut at the race in 2023. As in that edition, a team time trial emphasises team cohesion alongside individual strength in the hunt for overall victory. Vingegaard’s Visma-Lease a Bike team will also have defending champion Matteo Jorgenson and newcomer Victor Campenaerts to help power the team.

The absence of rival Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) on the start list certainly helps Vingegaard’s odds, but there are ample opportunities along the 1,206.2-kilometre eight-stage 2025 Race to the Sun’s route for his rivals to pounce.

Most notably, after the team time trial is a summit finish on La Loge des Gardes – the same climb where Vingegaard succumbed to Pogačar’s attack and gave up the advantage he gained in the TTT in 2023. The next day finishes atop a new climb in La Côte-Saint-André to the Notre-Dame-de-Sciez cathedral. The 1.7km ascent kicks up to a maximum of 18% and averages 11.1%.

Vingegaard will be on his favoured terrain on stage 7, with a summit showdown in Auron (7.3km at 7.2%) and the final stage, which features the Col des Quatre Chemins after the Col de’Èze, as in 2024, before the famous downhill run to the finish in Nice.

UAE Team Emirates will be looking to continue their flying start to 2025 against their big rival, Visma, with João Almeida set to start as one of the Dane’s biggest contenders after finishing second to him at the Volta ao Algarve in February.

Cycling News looks at the main contenders and outsiders for Paris-Nice 2025.

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Vingegaard has only included Paris-Nice in his early season once, in 2023, when he lost to Pogačar. In previous years, the Dane has favoured Tirreno-Adriatico. Unlike in 2023, however, Vingegaard won’t have to concern himself with fighting the Slovenian for the title.

The 28-year-old showed that he is coming into the season on fine form after ending 2024 early to recover from racing the Tour de France – and finishing second – following his horrifying crash in Itzulia Basque Country. The injuries and the last-minute scramble to find competitive form were draining, but Vingegaard ended last season on a high with the overall win in the Tour de Pologne.

Last month, he dominated the Volta ao Algarve final time trial, taking the stage win and overall classification. Jorgenson kicked off his season brightly at Opening Weekend, but one can only assume Vingegaard will remain the team’s main leader, despite the American’s status as the defending Paris-Nice champion. Nonetheless, the American should still be an important foil and play the role of co-leader for Visma.

Certainly, Vingegaard’s time trialling – perhaps thanks to his 150mm cranks – will put him in good standing in the team time trial, which will be run under the ASO’s timing rules which award each rider their actual finishing time rather than the time of the team’s fourth rider. Jorgenson himself is an adept TT rider, and added power from the likes of Victor Campenaerts should put Visma in good stead for the important team race against the clock.

Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Jorgenson made the list for the same reasons Vingegaard is a contender – the American is a former winner, and his climbing and time-trialing abilities are enviable.

Last season in Paris-Nice, Jorgenson was an unassuming 52 seconds down heading into stage 6 but slipped away on an unassuming category 2 climb with 30km to go and got away with Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates) and Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), gaining enough time to move into second place overall. Then, on the final stage, Jorgenson wiped out McNulty’s GC lead by attacking with Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quickstep) to secure the overall victory.

It’s just that kind of opportunistic riding that makes Jorgenson such a strong card to play, in addition to Vingegaard for Visma-Lease a Bike. 

Off the back of a big altitude camp, Jorgenson wasn’t quite at his best during Omloop Nieuwsblad and Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne, however, as a native of Nice and heading towards his big goals in the Classics, expect the American to be in top shape for his favourite race on the calendar.

Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious)

In the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, Buitrago jumped away to the victory on the short kick to Portell de Morella with impressive speed, surprising overnight leader João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates) and snatching the overall victory. Buitrago out-powered none other than Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), a massive feat, and added a second stage win after his solo victory at Benifato on stage 2.

Buitrago’s only downfall in the race was Bahrain Victorious’ performance in the team time trial, where they lost 1:11 to stage winners Lidl-Trek and 21 seconds to Almeida’s team. With the TTT an important but maybe not crucial aspect of the 2025 Paris-Nice route, Buitrago will likely have time to make up after stage 3, and that won’t be as viable with Vingegaard in the mix as it was in Valencia.

However, it’s tough to count out the punchy 25-year-old who won the Paris-Nice stage on Mont Brouilly last year – he was second overall before crashing on stage 6 while chasing Jorgenson and then crashed out of the race on the final stage. Buitrago is a contender to watch if he can avoid more bad luck.

João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates)

Another aggressive rider, João Almeida will lead UAE Team Emirates in Paris-Nice in Pogačar’s absence, but is more than just an understudy. The Portuguese rider has climbed onto two overall podiums this season already – in the Volta ao Algarve, 15 seconds behind Vingegaard, and in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, 18 seconds down on Buitrago.

Almeida was helped by UAE Team Emirates’ victory in the team time trial in 2024 in Paris-Nice, but he was coming into the season undercooked and didn’t find his top form until the Tour de Suisse, where he won two stages and finished second overall to teammate Adam Yates.

The 26-year-old has been second overall in six different stage races since his last GC victories in 2021 (Tour de Pologne and Tour de Luxembourg). Almeida is a rider ready for another step up.

Almeida will have the added strength of a stacked UAE roster to back him up in the Race to the Sun, with McNulty and Pavel Sivakov as secondary leaders and more than capable domestiques.

Ben O’Connor (Jayco-AlUla)

O’Connor debuted for his new team at the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, finishing 10th overall. It wasn’t a great start, but it was also not too bad, as Jayco-AlUla finished second to Lidl-Trek in the team time trial.

A proven GC contender like O’Connor, who closed out his final season with Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale by taking second overall in the Vuelta a España and second at the World Championships, will always be on the contenders list. 

If he can find better climbing legs while being well supported by Jayco-AlUla, that second place in the TTT in Valenciana should put him in a great position to place highly at Paris-Nice.

Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)

Fourth at last year’s Paris-Nice, Lidl-Trek’s Mattias Skjelmose is back at the Race to the Sun in 2025 to look for more GC success. Now 24, he’s slowly built his stick as a GC challenger and regularly competes for overall podiums at WorldTour stage races.

Skjelmose opened his 2025 season in France at the Faun-Ardèche and Faun Drome Classic races, netting solid results with sixth in the former and second at the latter.

He also won the stage to La Colle-sur-Loup in last season’s Paris-Nice so is well-equipped to perform in the March conditions. He’ll to carry strong form in France through to Itzulia Basque Country, before racing at the Ardennes and preparing for the Tour de France in July. 

Aleksandr Vlasov (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

Another perennial contender who has struggled to find the top step, Aleksandr Vlasov will be fighting to better his fifth place overall in last year’s Paris-Nice. The Russian won the stage on La Madone d’Utelle ahead of Remco Evenepoel last year – taking his first victory since the time trial stage at the 2022 Tour de Romandie.

Vlasov will have a very strong team at his disposal, with climbing support from Dani Martínez and Roger Adrià, and the team will have dual objectives with sprinter Sam Welsford eyeing stage wins. The split focus could hamper Vlasov on the mountain stages, but Olympic team pursuit champion Welsford’s power will come in handy in the team time trial.

Outsiders

Thymen Arensman (Ineos Grenadiers) – Arensman has three top-10 Grand Tour finishes and a Vuelta a España stage win on his palmares. He’s been Ineos’ second-tier GC rider for two seasons and showed he’s had a strong winter of training when he claimed fourth place overall at the Volta a Valenciana, two steps higher than teammate Carlos Rodríguez, the protected leader. With Rodríguez out with a broken collarbone after a crash in the UAE Tour, Arensman is a solid substitute GC rider and will benefit from Ineos’ strength in the TTT.

Iván Romeo (Movistar) – Just 21 years old, Romeo is in his third season with Movistar and is finally getting his WorldTour legs. The under-23 world time trial champion won a stage in the Volta a Valenciana and finished top 10 overall, then landed just off the podium in the UAE Tour, having gambled on the breakaway on the final stage and dropping from third to fourth overall. Paris-Nice might be his highly anticipated breakthrough at the WorldTour level.

Max Schachmann (Soudal-Quickstep) – Often overlooked, the German won Paris-Nice twice – in 2020, as six of the WorldTour teams skipped the race and more dropped out mid-race due to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and again in 2021 after leader Primož Roglič crashed out of contention on the final stage. Since then, his GC star has waned as Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe recruited Roglič. Now with Soudal-Quickstep, Schachmann appears reinvigorated, having started the season with fifth overall in the Volta ao Algarve. In the absence of Remco Evenepoel, Schachmann will have free reign in Paris-Nice to find his previous level.

Sprinters

Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) and Tim Merlier (Soudal-Quicsktep) are the fastest men in the bunch, each excelling at harder sprints. Pedersen has a stage win and overall victory at the Tour de la Provence, while Merlier has won two stages each at the AlUla Tour and UAE Tour this year. 

Arnaud Démare (Arkea-B&B Hotels) will be under pressure to deliver points toward his team’s future in the WorldTour. Two second places at the Étoile de Bessèges show he is gaining form and will be a force in the first two flat stages.

Sam Welsford (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) – Paris-Nice will be the next major test of the Welsford-Danny van Poppel sprint partnership as the duo fights to be considered for the Tour de France alongside Roglič’s GC ambitions. The train was off the rails in the UAE Tour, and they’ll be under pressure to get back on track at Paris-Nice. However, two yellow cards for Van Poppel could spook the Dutchman, who has been twice penalized for his lead-out antics.

Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X Mobility) – The Norwegian showed at the Ruta del Sol that he still has a winning sprint when he claimed a tough stage 3 from a reduced peloton. When not going for stages, Kristoff will have his talented young teammate Søren Wærenskjold to lead out in flatter sprints and Johannes Kulset to protect for the GC.

Michael Matthews (Jayco-AlUla) has shifted his focus away from bunch sprints and more toward aggressive racing but will undoubtedly have stage 6 circled in his road book as a warm-up for Milan-San Remo.

Fabio Jakobsen (Picnic-PostNl) has struggled since leaving Soudal-Quickstep and will look to get his train dialled in at Paris-Nice. The team are also not safe in the promotion-relegation ranking and will be desperately seeking points in Paris-Nice.