After the initial apocalyptical weather forecast for this year’s Milan-San Remo and Milan-San Remo Women, the latest weather models suggest both the men and women will avoid the rain that is expected in Italy at the weekend, with a slight tailwind blowing the riders along the Mediterranean coastline.
The sky above Milan was grey and still on Friday as teams began to arrive at their hotels south of the city, with similar conditions in Genoa, where the women will stay before their race.
The front of rain and thunderstorms currently over France are expected to pass over northern Italy on Friday night, with a second front arriving soon after the finish of the men’s race.
There is a slight risk the Poggio could be raced under an earlier-than-expected rain shower, but both the men’s 289km race and the women’s 156km race should be run on dry roads.
The men’s race will start in Pavia, just south of Milan, at 10:15 local time and end in San Remo at about 5:00 pm local time. The women’s Milan-Sam Remo will start in central Genoa at 10:35 and end in San Remo at around 2:30 pm local time.
The roads should be dry after the overnight rain with little wind on the Lombardy plain for the men’s long and flat ride south to the Passo del Turchino climb and the Mediterranean coast. The women should enjoy similar conditions as they ride west out of Genoa.
It will likely be overcast and so grey on Saturday, with temperatures of between 8-12°C. It is already official spring in Europe but it will feel like winter for the riders.
Light winds will blow across the race route on the first section of the Mediterranean coast after Genoa but the wind will become more of a tailwind in the final hour of racing.
The riders will enjoy a 20ph tailwind on the higher, more exposed parts of the Cipressa climb with 28km to race, which could, in theory, inspire and help any early attacks. However, the tailwind will also help the chasers, especially along the main Aurelia coast road to the foot of the Poggio.
The decisive attacks are likely to be launched on the Poggio but it could be a mistake to go too early on the twisting 3.7km climb. The first kilometre turns east and so into the headwind, surely stifling any attacks.
The Poggio gradually then turns westwards where the attacks are usually launched. The riders will face a 20kph crosswind before a tailwind to the summit and the famous corner that leads into the descent to San Remo and the finish.
If the Milan-San Remo forecasts are correct, the only spray the race winner enjoys will be from the huge bottle of Italian Spumante on the podium.
